Analysis: Five reasons why Trumpâs Republican opponents were never going to beat him
19 February 2024
Even if Trump's Republican opponents ran flawless campaigns, a combination of factors including the weaponisation of his indictments and backing from the party machine mean his nomination has become inevitable, argues Dr Thomas Gift (MyAV·¶ Politics) in The Conversation.
Donald Trumpâs inexorable march to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has sparked plenty of second-guessing. What could his opponents, including former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis, have done differently to topple him?Ìę
The impulse to answer that question is understandable. The twice-impeached Trump started the primary season with less than 50% support from the Republican electorate. The logic was if just one alternative could catch fire, a one-on-one matchup could at least spark a competitive race.Ìę
The reality? There is no answer. Much to the dismay of critics, hindsight tells us that Trump was right in framing 2024 as a coronation, not a primary. His opponents ran far from flawless campaigns. But even if theyâd been near-perfect, Trumpâs nomination was inevitable.Ìę
Here are five reasons why.Ìę
1. Criminal prosecutionsÌę
Nothing boosted Trumpâs momentum â upwards â more than the cascade of criminal prosecutions heâs faced. The fact that the first indictment to land, a dubious charge for falsifying business records in New York, was also the substantive âruntâ of the litter only helped his cause.Ìę
True to his brand of âgrievance politicsâ, Trump effectively framed himself as the victim of a politically motivated witch hunt by a Democrat district attorney. That narrative only grew as more indictments â 91 in total, spanning two federal cases and another felony case in Georgia â stacked up.Ìę
Trump didnât get a bump in the polls after every successive indictment. Yet the first prosecution was more than enough to propel him. According to Real Clear Politics, Trumpâs numbers rose about six percentage points in the first week after he was charged. Since then, heâs not looked back.Ìę
2. Ballot disqualificationsÌę
Trump didnât need even more help to make his case that Democrats were âweaponizingâ the legal system against him. But he got it anyway in the form of two major efforts to disqualify him from running for office under the 14th Amendment for allegedly engaging in âinsurrectionâ on January 6 2021 (the attack on the Capitol).Ìę
In December, the Colorado Supreme Court handed Trump an early Christmas present by ruling in a 4-3 decision on his ineligibility. Later that month, Maineâs Democrat secretary of state followed suit in issuing a similar decree.Ìę
Right on cue, Trump doubled down by decrying the decision to disqualify him as âthe most anti-democratic opinion Iâve seen in my lifetimeâ. He used fundraising to bolster his position in the polls, and cement his position as a martyr for the right-wing base.Ìę
3. Electability, folksÌę
For Republican elites, a big strike against Trump was his supposed unelectability. Cue DeSantis, whoâd won the governorship in the swing state of Florida by a whopping 19 percentage points in 2022. Also enter Haley, whoâd enjoyed an 80-plus percent approval rating while governor of South Carolina in the mid-2010s.Ìę
The electability argument, however, failed to resonate with rank-and-file voters. Not for no reason. Republicans were told to go with the âelectableâ candidate in 2008 in John McCain. They lost. They were told to do the same with Mitt Romney in 2012. They lost.Ìę
Polls also never confirmed Trump was unelectable. Today, most data has Trump narrowly beating Biden in the national popular vote, albeit within the statistical margin of error. They also show Trump with significant leads in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and elsewhere.Ìę
4. Backing from the party machineÌę
Recent months have dispelled misplaced hopes among anti-Trumpers that Republican party leaders would throw their weight behind another candidate, or act as neutral power brokers in the primaries. Instead, the GOP party machine has âput its thumb on the scaleâ for Trump.Ìę
Thatâs true rhetorically. No sooner had Trump won his second primary in New Hampshire that is âthatâ the right word here? Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel declared: âWe need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump, and we need to make sure we beat Joe Biden.âÌę
Party rule changes have also aided Trump. Take Nevada, for example, where the state GOP bucked the scheduled primary and instead held a caucus where Trump was the only major candidate on the ballot. The result: Haley got trounced by ânone of these candidatesâ in the defunct primary. Trump captured all 26 official delegates destined for the Republican National Convention.Ìę
5. Craving the real dealÌę
Who wants a calorie-condensed version of Trumpism when Trump Ultra is on tap? More than anything, that sums up the average GOP voterâs response to speculation that a âTrump Liteâ candidate was what conservatives really craved.Ìę
Many experts theorised that a âless feral, more pastelâ alternative to Trump would be welcomed by a silent majority of Republicans who were turned off by Trumpâs foul mouth, impulsiveness and âbull-in-a-china-shopâ mentality.Ìę
That theoryâs been debunked. Yes, Trump-backed candidates got trounced in the 2022 midterms. Yes, the Make America Great Again (Maga) vote didnât turn out to complete the expected âred waveâ that everyone in the party expected.Ìę
But Trump wasnât on that ballot. Heâs a singularly iconoclastic figure whose appeal canât be measured through proxies or wannabes.Ìę
The reality: GOP voters never wanted Trumpism without Trump. Instead, they wanted Trumpism with Trump. Or more precisely, they just wanted Trump. The fact that nearly 70% of Republican voters still believe the âBig Lieâ â that 2020 was rigged â only added to the feeling that Trump was âowedâ a second chance at the nomination.Ìę
Inevitably, theyâll get their wish.Ìę
Links
- Dr Thomas Gift's academic profileÌę
- MyAV·¶ÌęCentre on US Politics
- MyAV·¶ Political Science
- MyAV·¶ Social & Historical SciencesÌę